Well, Cam Akers could be a thing again this week. And boy, are we tired of trying to pretend Cam Akers is fantasy relevant. If this were happening within the movie “Mean Girls,” somebody would be telling Gretchen to stop trying to make Cam Akers happen.
Nevertheless, Joe Mixon is expected to be sidelined with an ankle injury, and backup Dameon Pierce could be out with or limited by a hamstring problem.
So here comes Cam Akers, again. He has gotten chance after chance after chance, and he has thoroughly disappointed pretty much every time. We tired of trying to make Cam Akers happen on our fantasy rosters, with no success. No more!
We bring this up because we’re a tad worried the guy we’re about to talk about could turn into the next Cam Akers. He has some opportunity in the past but hasn’t done great. But because it is a small sample size, and because we expect a healthy volume of work this week, we are going to give Trey Sermon the chance to prove he isn’t as aggressively mediocre as Akers.
In the past, Sermon has been the presumed handcuff to Elijah Mitchell then Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. But he was not impressive in limited action.
He landed in Indianapolis last season, where he played behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, and again, got limited reps with no highlight reel material.
Now, Moss is no longer there, and Taylor will be out Sunday with a high ankle sprain. And Sermon is the guy waiting to take his place.
When Taylor was out to begin last season, it was Moss who inherited the feature workload, and he excelled. Moss finished as a top-10 running back in four of the first five weeks — scoring better than 20 in PPR three of those games.
Moss is a fine player, but he isn’t otherworldly. It isn’t like he sets a standard too high for Sermon to reach. Sermon doesn’t have to be as good, he just needs to be better than Cam Akers. And Sermon has a couple of things going for him.
First, quarterback Anthony Richardson could be out, too. He was limited at practice all week with an oblique injury. If Richardson is out, Joe Flacco would get the call. And Flacco isn’t going to vulture potential goal-line touchdowns the way Richardson would. And the offense would likely deliver more consistent production, allowing for more goal-line snaps overall.
Then consider: Richardson has eight red-zone rush attempts this season, and Taylor has 15. So the Colts are averaging almost six red-zone rushes per game. Sermon should get all of those if Richardson and Taylor both are out — Tyler Goodson is the only other running back on the roster, and he has zero total carries this season.
But this Sermon isn’t over. There is another blessing bestowed upon him. The Colts are facing the winless Jaguars — who rank 26th against opposing fantasy RBs, allowing 5.5 more than the league average per week in PPR.
More From Drew Loftis
The Jaguars’ run defense might actually be worse than that. None of the four teams they have faced are even in the top half of the league in rushing — so the Jags have produced bottom-tier results while facing bottom-half run games.
Against a defense like that, Sermon doesn’t have to be great, just better than Cam Akers.
Now, if Richardson plays, Sermon is more of a desperate bye-week fill-in — since that would severely dampen his touchdown potential. Though based on his limited practice time throughout the week, we’re preparing for Richardson to be out.
When Sermon is called upon, we think he can answer our fantasy prayers, and hopefully he doesn’t pull a Cam Akers.
Big weeks
Justin Fields QB, Bears, vs. Cowboys (FanDuel $7,600/DraftKings $5,800)
The only QB the Cowboys have contained this season are Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. Fields is getting more comfy in the Steelers system — averaging 25.2 fantasy points over the past two games.
Austin Ekeler RB, Commanders, vs. Browns (FD $6,000/DK $5,600)
Brian Robinson Jr. has been limited in practice all week with a knee issue — he will be a gamer-time decision but hard to envision he gets a full workload if he does play. Just like he cashed in with Ekeler out last week, expect Ekeler to do the same this week
Alexander Mattison RB, Raiders, at Broncos (FD $5,800/DK $5,200)
Zamir White has missed practices this week with a groin injury. This should open the door for Mattison to get a significant bump on touches. If he does well, White might not return to his feature status.
Tre Tucker WR, Raiders, at Broncos (FD $5,800/DK $4,100)
Davante Adams is expected out again. We still like Jakobi Meyers in this spot, but last week Tucker got the biggest boost. Plus, you can still find Tucker on waivers, unlike Meyers.
Small weaks
Patrick Mahomes QB, Chiefs, vs. Saints (FD $8,300/DK $7,000)
Since Week 8 of last season (13 games), Mahomes has finished among the top 12 QBs just twice (none this year), with the highest rank QB8 — averaging 16.6. No QB has reached 14 fantasy points vs. the Saints this season.
Kareem Hunt RB, Chiefs, vs. Saints (FD $7,100/DK $5,500)
We were shocked to see Hunt come straight off the street then get the bulk of the backfield work last week. We will not be surprised if it is a different RB this week — be it Samaje Perine or rookie Carson Steele. Think this is going to be a mess until Isiah Pacheco returns. Plus, Hunt is dealing with a shoulder issue.
Betting on the NFL?
Keenan Allen WR, Bears, vs. Panthers (FD $5,800/DK $5,800)
The third option in a limited passing offense does not interest us. He might hit randomly 2-3 times over the season, but he will burn you more often in your lineup than he will on your bench.
Trey McBride TE, Cardinals, at 49ers (FD $6,500/DK $5,900)
He is expected to play after clearing concussion protocol. But his matchup is tough — anchored by LB Fred Warner. Hard to sit him in seasonal leagues at such a shallow position, but we’re fading him in DFS.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $300K
Pot: $1.6M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Geno Smith — Sea (vs. NYG) $7,400
RB: Derrick Henry — Bal (at Cin) $9,200
RB: Jordan Mason — SF (vs. Ari) $8,700
WR: DK Metcalf — Sea (vs. NYG) $8,200
WR: Xavier Legette — Car (at Chi) $6,000
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. — Ind (at Jac) $6,100
TE: Erick All Jr. — Cin (vs. Bal) $4,400
Flex: Austin Ekeler — Was (vs. Cle) $6,000
DEF: Broncos — Den (vs. LV) $4,000
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Geno Smith — Sea (vs. NYG) $7,400
RB: Kenneth Walker III — Sea (vs. NYG) $7,400
RB: Jordan Mason — SF (vs. Ari) $8,700
WR: DK Metcalf — Sea (vs. NYG) $8,200
WR: Amari Cooper — Cle (at Was) $6,200
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. — Jac (vs. Ind) $6,100
TE: Tucker Kraft — GB (at LAR) $5,300
Flex: D’Andre Swift — Chi (vs. Car) $6,400
DEF: Broncos — Den (vs. LV) $4,000
Late roster changes, check @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on Threads
Season risked: $67
Season’s winnings: Drew $150, Jarad $56.50